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Oct 16, 2016 : fx24’s Trading Performance Report (TPR 93) for September 2016

It has been another exceptionally difficult month trading-wise. Not as bad as August, but poor nonetheless. The year started out normal enough, but over the past three months the trading environment has steadily deteriorated to the point where three out of every four short-term ‘technical’ price signals in the EUR/USD and OIL have proved false. And GOLD hasn’t been much better. The last time I can remember conditions being anything like this was in the last two quarters of 2007 –and previous to that in November 1991, just before Sterling fell out of the ERM –not that I am implying the current situation has anything specifically to do with Brexit. But, it does I believe, have political overtones. Because it’s clear that the markets are being manipulated by powerful forces with a mind to maintaining relative stability ahead of the forthcoming U.S. Presidential Election. The most effective way of doing this is by deterring speculators (the majority of whom are trend-followers) and encouraging jobbers (the majority of whom are range traders) by ‘fading’ almost every price signal regardless of direction or how strong it may be from a ‘technically’ standpoint. In relatively quiet conditions, with enough muscle and the political acquiescence of the powers that be, it’s not hard to do. Nervous unstable markets will no doubt be perceived as a vote for Trump, whilst steady and seemingly untroubled markets will likely aid Clinton. But, by sponsoring what is effectively a policy of artificial pricing the authorities are arguably storing up problems and creating a ‘calm before the storm’ situation. In hostile conditions such as this, for ‘technically’ motivated traders, it is a matter of damage limitation and trying to ‘keep one’s powder dry’ –for the day when the unstoppable forces of supply and demand prise the market’s sluice gates open, and prices re-adjust to value. But for now, I have to report another disappointing monthly result of -0.47% –made up of negative returns in the EUR/USD (Spot) and OIL (US Crude) of -0.88% (-0.29% of total) and -1.45% (-0.49%) respectively, and a positive return in GOLD (Comex) of +0.94% (+0.31%). This makes the accumulative annual Profit to date +5.41% (approx.7.25% annualized).

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